The Indo-Pakistan Rift: A Brewing Storm and Its Implications for Africa

Introduction

The recent escalation between India and Pakistan, sparked by the Pahalgam attack in Jammu and Kashmir, has drawn global attention back to one of world’s most volatile rivalries. India’s swift retaliatory posture, including the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty and diplomatic expulsions, has been met with nuclear rhetoric from Pakistan. What’s unfolding is not just a regional flare-up but a moment of heightened global risk.

And yet, as an African observer, I find the silence across our capitals and policy spaces deafening. Once again, a major geopolitical crisis is unfolding that could reverberate across African economies, diplomatic networks, and security environments-yet the strategic community remains largely reactive if not absent. This isn’t just about solidarity or watching the Global South splinter. It’s about what we risk missing by not integrating global conflict dynamics into African foreign policy and strategic planning.

South Asia’s Power Rivalry in a Multipolar World

India and Pakistan are beyond regional rivals and are developed into influential players in a multipolar world where traditional alignments are shifting. India is deepening ties with the U.S., Japan, and African nations under its Indo-Pacific vision, while also asserting leadership within BRICS and the Global South. Pakistan, long allied with China and steadily vocal in Islamic multilateralism, is creating its own narrative of strategic significance.

Both countries view Africa as a strategic frontier: India through investment in digital infrastructure, pharmaceuticals, and maritime security; Pakistan through trade, religious soft power, and military-to-military links, especially in East and West Africa.

When they clash, it is not only their borders that tighten, but also their global posture, their economic priorities, and their ability to project influence abroad. For Africa, this means more than disrupted trade, it could mean the retraction of diplomatic focus, military cooperation, and even critical development programs.

Trade, security and dependency

Africa’s dependance on Indian pharmaceuticals, agricultural technology, and educational platforms is rarely factored into discussions about Indo-Pak conflict. But a prolonged crisis could drive India to divert industrial capacity toward domestic preparedness, disrupt maritime routes or tighten trade policies to focus on allies. Pakistan, also, could retract its growing (albeit more limited) commercial engagements with Africa.

This reveals a deeper and bigger problem- Africa’s vulnerability in global value chains and its overreliance on bilateral goodwill, rather than structural resilience. We do not sufficiently buffer ourselves from external economic shocks because we still treat South-South ties as inherently stable or ideologically safe. But when ideological partners become belligerents, Africa is left well exposed.

Diaspora and domestic tensions

This conflict also brings into sharp focus a more sensitive issue: the role of South Asian diaspora in Africa. From Durban to Nairobi, Indian and Pakistani communities have lived, traded and thrived, often peacefully, but not without historical tensions. Should this rift intensify and spill into enhanced media narratives, protests, or online discourse, it could create pressures within African societies that have long hosted these communities.

Governments must be proactive in engaging diaspora leadership, making sure tensions abroad do not become grievances at home. Social cohesion must be safeguarded, not just in terms of security but through inclusive narratives that prioritize African unity over imported divisions. Especially countries like Kenya, where the Indian community is recognized as a tribe constitutionally, yet continue to face an identity crisis.

Africa’s policy silence

Perhaps the most worrying aspect of this moment is Africa’s strategic invisibility. Foreign ministries and regional bodies rarely issue coordinated statements on Indo-Pak tensions. Platforms like the African Union Peace and Security Council are not used to anticipate the ripple effects of Asian geopolitics.

This reflects a larger flaw: Africa is still treated, even by itself, as a recipient of global dynamics rather than a participant in shaping them. African nations have commented on Ukraine, has taken positions on Gaza, but when two nuclear-armed powers rattle sabers and their footprints stretch across African shores, they remain on the sidelines. Why?

Is it a lack of capacity, or a fear of offending partners? Is it strategic neutrality or strategic passivity? If Africa wants to be respected as a global actor, it needs to start reading the board, not just the headlines.

A more woke Africa

The India-Pakistan rift is a geopolitical fire that may or may not escalate into open conflict. But even if it doesn’t, it has already exposed the fragility of Africa’s positioning in the global system. Africa is deeply connected to the outcomes of distant conflicts: economically, diplomatically, and socially - yet doesn’t act like it.

This is a wake-up call.

African governments, think tanks, and citizens must begin developing foreign policy frameworks that anticipate global shocks. Conflict monitoring units that don’t stop at African borders are necessary. A South-South strategy that accounts for rivalry, not just romance, is necessary. An investment in geopolitical literacy is necessary. Because, in a world on fire, strategic ignorance is a liability that cannot be afforded.

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About the Author: Jasleen Gill is an International Relations graduate with a minor in Criminal Justice and concentration in Peace and Conflict studies, with a strong focus on security, diplomacy, and conflict resolution. Passionate about global governance, humanitarian action, geopolitics and intelligence analysis, she explores the dynamics of war, peacebuilding, and international security, with a particular interest in Africa’s evolving role in global affairs.

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