Battlefield and Beyond: Case Study on how Post-War Mosul Recovered

A Story of Conflict and Resilience

Introduction

We are continuing our collaboration which began with the article Battlefield and Beyond, Governance and Economic Recovery in Post-Conflict States, with this the first in a short series of case studies. We enjoy collaborating and hope that the different strengths and perspectives we have shed new light on issues and situations.

Jasleen’s expertise is in geopolitics, and the ability to analyse and unpack the background to conflicts, the external influences and the peace processes, among other interests and attributes. Eric’s expertise is in program and project management, community building and social capital,

For countries, cities and communities to recover post-conflict, we feel that both perspectives are helpful and shed new light on the challenges and opportunities of post-war reconstruction and regeneration of affected cities.

We both felt it important to start with Mosul in Iraq.

The War in Iraq

The Iraq War (2003–2011), the Second Gulf War, was a transformative conflict with profound consequences for the country, the Middle East, and global geopolitics. Initiated by a U.S.-led coalition, the war aimed to dismantle the regime of Saddam Hussein, eliminate alleged weapons of mass destruction (WMD), and establish a democratic Iraq.

Its origins are rooted in a complex interplay of geopolitical, ideological, and security concerns following the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks on the United States. The administration of President George W. Bush framed Iraq as a threat to global security, alleging that Saddam Hussein’s regime possessed WMD and maintained ties to terrorist organizations, including al-Qaeda. These claims, later disproven, were central to justifying the invasion.

The U.S. argued that Iraq’s violation of United Nations Security Council Resolution 1441, which demanded disarmament, necessitated military action (Council on Foreign Relations, 2024). Additionally, the Bush administration sought to promote democracy in the Middle East, viewing Iraq as a potential model for regional transformation.

The war began on March 20, 2003, with Operation Iraqi Freedom, a rapid military campaign involving approximately 160,000 coalition troops, primarily from the United States (130,000), the United Kingdom (28,000), Australia (2,000), and Poland (194). The invasion swiftly toppled Saddam Hussein’s Ba’athist government, with Baghdad falling within weeks. However, the absence of WMD and the emergence of a violent insurgency shifted the conflict into a prolonged occupation, marked by sectarian violence and significant human costs.

The war resulted in over 4,700 U.S. and allied troop being killed and, more shockingly, an estimated 100,000–300,000 Iraqi civilian deaths (Council on Foreign Relations, 2024; PBS News, 2023).

The conflict also became a defining moment in the discourse on international intervention and state sovereignty. Analysts argue that the Iraq War marks a significant departure from post-Cold War multilateralism and exposes the consequences of bypassing international consensus in favour of unilateral action. The use of disputed intelligence regarding weapons of mass destruction, coupled with the absence of clear post-war reconstruction framework, undermines the legitimacy of the intervention in the eyes of many in the Global South. This approach weakens norms surrounding humanitarian intervention and sets a troubling precedent for future engagements in fragile states. Drawing from comparative analyses of post-conflict scenarios, especially in African contexts, externally imposed transitions lacking grassroots participation and local legitimacy often enhance instability than resolve it. The war in Iraq thus offers not only a cautionary tale about risks of regime change through force, but a critical lens through which importance of inclusive governance, regional dynamics and sustainable peacebuilding in post-authoritarian societies should be examined.

The Peace Process

It is fair to say that the peace process wasn’t easy. It was a tortuous process with many setbacks along the way.

Efforts to achieve peace in Iraq were multifaceted, involving military, diplomatic, and political strategies to stabilize the country and transition to self-governance. The peace process faced significant challenges due to sectarian divisions, insurgency, and the lack of a robust post-invasion plan. The key elements of this time are:

• Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA) and Transitional Governance (2003–2005): Following the fall of Saddam’s regime, the CPA was established to govern Iraq temporarily. The CPA’s decisions, such as disbanding the Iraqi Army and purging Ba’ath Party members, created a power vacuum and fueled insurgency (United States Institute of Peace, 2023).

• In 2005, Iraq held multi-party elections, a critical step toward democracy, resulting in a new constitution and the election of a transitional government. Despite a Sunni boycott, participation by Kurds and Shiites marked progress toward inclusive governance.

• The Surge (2007): By 2006, sectarian violence between Sunni and Shia groups, exacerbated by events like the al-Askari Mosque bombing, threatened civil war. The U.S. responded with the “surge,” deploying an additional 20,000 troops to secure Baghdad and other hotspots. This strategy, combined with alliances with Sunni tribes (the “Anbar Awakening”), reduced violence significantly by 2008 (George W. Bush Library, n.d.).

• UN Assistance Mission for Iraq (UNAMI): Established in 2003, UNAMI facilitated national dialogue, supported reconciliation efforts, and advised on political transitions. With personnel peaking at 754 in 2007, UNAMI played a crucial role in fostering stability and human rights (SIPRI, 2023).

• U.S. Withdrawal and Transition (2009–2011): President Barack Obama announced a gradual withdrawal in 2009, with U.S. forces transferring security responsibilities to the Iraqi government. By December 18, 2011, all U.S. troops had withdrawn, marking the official end of the Iraq War (George W. Bush Library, n.d.).

Despite these efforts, the peace process was hampered by ongoing sectarian tensions, corruption, and the failure to integrate Sunni communities, setting the stage for the rise of the Islamic State (IS) in 2014 (United States Institute of Peace, 2023).

The peace process, while achieving milestones like elections and the surge, struggled to address deep-seated sectarian divisions and governance failures.

From a geopolitical and conflict analysis perspective, the peace process in Iraq highlights the limitation of externally driven state-building when it is lacking in sustained legitimacy among local populations. The international community emphasises of rapid democratisation, without a grounded reconciliation process or inclusive political institutions, intensifying pre-existing ethnic and sectarian cleavages. If compared with post-conflict case studies in Africa, such as Sudan and Somalia, one can conclude that peacebuilding efforts that exclude historically marginalised groups relapse into violence or emerging extremist threats. In Iraq, the failure in integrating Sunni communities into power structures mirror similar exclusionary dynamics in transitional governments elsewhere, with destabilising consequences. The peace process is symbolically significant but did not resolve the underlying issues of trust, identity politics, and regional competition that continues to shape Iraq’s fragile statehood.

The State of Iraq at War’s End

By the end of the Iraq War in December 2011, Iraq was a fragile state grappling with political instability, sectarian divisions, and economic challenges. The U.S. withdrawal left a Shia-dominated government under Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, whose exclusionary policies alienated Sunnis and Kurds, exacerbating tensions.

The 2005 constitution established a parliamentary democracy with power-sharing arrangements, but political blocs resisted reforms, prioritizing ethno-sectarian interests over national unity (SIPRI, 2023).

The war’s human toll was staggering. Estimates suggest 150,000 to over 1 million total deaths, including 100,000–300,000 civilians, with millions displaced (PBS News, 2023). Infrastructure was devastated, and the economy, heavily reliant on oil, faced challenges from corruption and global price fluctuations. The security vacuum enabled the rise of IS, which seized large territories by 2014, prompting renewed U.S. intervention under Operation Inherent Resolve (Council on Foreign Relations, 2024).

Despite these challenges, Iraq achieved some progress. The 2005 elections and constitution laid the foundation for democratic governance, and the Kurdistan Regional Government maintained relative stability (SIPRI, 2023). However, Iraq’s fragility persisted, with ongoing issues such as water scarcity, climate change, and foreign influence from Iran and Turkey complicating recovery (Human Rights Watch, 2023).

Over 1.2 million Iraqis remained displaced as of April 2022 due to wars and the impact of Islamic State (HUMANITE Peace Collective, n.d.). Economically Iraq’s budget remains nearly entirely dependent on oil revenues, exacerbating economic vulnerabilities (Human Rights Watch, 2023).

The war’s legacy continues to shape Iraq’s trajectory, underscoring the complexities of post-conflict reconstruction and the need for inclusive governance.

The Ashes of Mosul

The city of Mosul is Iraq’s second-largest urban centre. It emerged from the war and the subsequent conflict with the Islamic State (ISIS) profoundly scarred, with significant social, economic, and physical destruction.

The Battle of Mosul (2016–2017), a nine-month campaign to liberate the city from ISIS control, left an indelible mark on its infrastructure, population, and societal fabric. This section examines the state of Mosul at the end of these conflicts, focusing on the social and economic consequences, the extent of destruction, and the challenges faced by its residents in rebuilding their lives and society.

Social and Economic Data:

Mosul’s population, estimated at approximately 1.8 million in 2014 before ISIS’s takeover, was a diverse mix of Arabs, Kurds, Assyrians, Turkmen, and other ethnic and religious groups, including Sunni and Shia Muslims, Christians, and Yazidis (American Society of Overseas Research, 2019).

The conflict displaced over 1 million people, with many fleeing to neighbouring regions or countries like Syria and Turkey (VerminusM, 2023). By 2017, only a fraction of the population remained in the city during the liberation campaign, enduring severe hardships under ISIS rule and the subsequent military operations.

Economically, Mosul was a significant hub for oil, marble, and agriculture before 2014, bolstered by institutions like Mosul University, one of the Middle East’s premier academic centers (American Society of Overseas Research, 2019). However, ISIS’s occupation and the liberation campaign devastated the local economy. A 2017 household survey conducted in Mosul revealed that employment was scarce, with few households having steady income sources (Lafta et al., 2018).

The destruction of infrastructure, including markets, factories, and oil facilities, crippled economic activity. The United Nations estimated that reconstructing Mosul’s infrastructure would cost upwards of $96 million, with 40% of the city, particularly the Old City in western Mosul, heavily damaged (SawabCenter, 2019).

The survey also highlighted a sharp decline in education access, with only 2.2% of school-age children attending school under ISIS compared to 80.3% before 2014, reflecting a significant loss of educational opportunities (Lafta et al., 2018).

Socially, the war exacerbated existing tensions and created new challenges. The same 2017 survey reported a high prevalence of intimate partner violence, affecting 34.5% of households, and a rise in early marriages, with 12.9% of women married at age 15 or younger and 49.7% under 18, driven by economic desperation and cultural pressures during the conflict (Lafta et al., 2018). The trauma of displacement, loss, and violence left many residents, particularly children, psychologically scarred. For instance, accounts from Mosul residents describe children being traumatized by ISIS’s brutality, with some unable to venture outside due to fear (Norwegian Refugee Council & Oxfam, 2021).

Destruction in Mosul:

The physical destruction of Mosul was staggering, particularly in the western sectors, where the Old City bore the brunt of the fighting. The Battle of Mosul resulted in the destruction or damage of 138,000 homes, with 40,000 completely demolished in western Mosul alone (SpencerGuard, 2024). Cultural heritage sites, including the Great Mosque of al-Nuri (built circa 1172) and the Al-Tahira Syriac Catholic Church (1862), were reduced to rubble, either by ISIS or during coalition airstrikes (Al Jazeera, 2023).

The Mosul Museum and Central Library suffered extensive looting and burning, with thousands of priceless artifacts and manuscripts lost (American Society of Overseas Research, 2019). The city’s infrastructure, including bridges, roads, and the power grid, was decimated; no households had regular electricity, and piped water was scarce by 2017 (Lafta et al., 2018). The United Nations Environment Programme estimated 7–8 million tonnes of debris littered the city, complicating reconstruction efforts (UN News, 2025).

The human toll was equally devastating. The conflict claimed an estimated 10,000–11,000 civilian lives, with 23,000 civilians dead or wounded overall (NWFreeZone, 2025). The intense urban warfare, marked by airstrikes, car bombings, and sniper attacks, left neighbourhoods like West Mosul resembling post-World War II Berlin, with human remains and unexploded ordnance posing ongoing risks (JohnSimpsonNews, 2019). The destruction of key institutions, such as Mosul University’s library, further eroded the city’s intellectual and cultural foundations.

Life and Society in Mosul:

Life in Mosul at the end of the Iraq War was characterized by resilience amid profound adversity. Under ISIS’s three-year occupation (2014–2017), residents faced strict social controls, including bans on education, music, and free movement, particularly for women. Many families defied these restrictions, with some women breaking social norms to work and provide for their households after losing male breadwinners (Norwegian Refugee Council & Oxfam, 2021). The liberation campaign, while ending ISIS’s rule, brought new challenges.

Residents returned to a city in ruins, with limited access to basic services like water, electricity, and healthcare. The lack of government support and slow reconstruction efforts fuelled frustration, with some residents expressing a determination to rebuild “with our own hands” (Norwegian Refugee Council & Oxfam, 2021).

Society in Mosul remained fractured along ethnic and religious lines, exacerbated by the war’s sectarian undertones. The exodus of Assyrian Christians, driven by targeted violence in 2008 and 2014, reduced the city’s diversity (Wikipedia, 2003). Meanwhile, Sunni communities, perceived by some as complicit with ISIS, faced marginalization, contributing to social tensions (Pollack, 2017). Despite these challenges, glimmers of recovery emerged.

By 2019, East Mosul showed signs of revival, with bustling markets and a growing sense of normalcy, though West Mosul lagged, remaining largely deserted and unreconstructed (JohnSimpsonNews, 2019). UNESCO’s “Revive the Spirit of Mosul” project, launched in 2018, employed over 7,700 locals to rebuild landmarks like the Al-Nouri Mosque, fostering a sense of community and pride (UN News, 2025). Young architects and filmmakers documented these efforts, capturing stories of hope and resilience (UN News, 2025).

Mosul at the end of the Iraq War was a city grappling with the aftermath of unprecedented destruction and loss. The social and economic fabric was torn apart, with widespread displacement, unemployment, and trauma.

The physical devastation of homes, infrastructure, and cultural heritage posed immense challenges to recovery. Yet, the resilience of Mosul’s residents, coupled with international support, offered hope for rebuilding. The path to restoring Mosul’s vibrant, diverse society remains long, requiring sustained investment in infrastructure, education, and social cohesion.

To say that these weren’t a great basis to build from is more than an understatement, and yet people did. That’s the triumph of the human spirit in the face of almost unimaginable adversity.

The Rebuilding Process

In the aftermath of the Iraq War, the rebuilding process proved to be as complex as the conflict itself. The collapsing of Saddam Hussein’s regime left behind not just physical destruction, but deeply fractured institutions and a society that was divided along sectarian lines. Initial reconstruction efforts did focus on infrastructure and elections, but deeper issues such as political exclusion, identity-based grievances, and weak rule of law posed serious obstacles to sustainable recovery.

The U.S. and its allies invested billions in reconstruction projects, but many of these efforts were hindered by corruption, security threats and lack of local ownership. Iraq’s post-war governance prioritized political survival over structural reform. Critical sectors like healthcare, education, and energy remain under strain, with many public services failing to reach war-affected populations.

One of the key failures is the absence of reconciliation framework that could rebuild trust across communities, in such post-conflict regions. Instead of fostering inclusion, early post-war governance entrenched mistrust. This gap in social cohesion makes a country vulnerable to extremist resurgence and foreign interferences.

The emerging of the Islamic State in 2014 exposed the fragility of Iraq’s rebuilding efforts, reversing many early gains. The group was eventually defeated militarily, but the humanitarian and political scars left behind continue to challenge Iraq’s path forward. As on 2022, more than 1l.2 million people remain internally displaces, and many areas lack essential infrastructure and job opportunities.

Rebuilding Iraq needs more than physical reconstruction. It seeks inclusive governance, economic diversification beyond oil, transitional justice and environmental resilience.

Mosul Today

Mosul, once a thriving commercial and cultural hub in northern Iraq, emerged from the battle against the Islamic State (IS) as a city scarred by conflict but central to Iraq’s reconstruction narrative. Retaken by Iraqi forces in 2017 after a brutal nine-month military campaign supported by the U.S.-led coalition, Mosul is still emblematic of both the devastation caused by war and the challenges of post-conflict recovery.

Large parts of the city, especially the historic Old City, lies in ruins, with thousands of buildings still destroyed and basic services (electricity, healthcare, education) only partially restored. The city is struggling to regain stability amid ongoing displacement, slow reconstruction efforts, and economic hardships (Human Rights Watch, 2023).

Bureaucratic delays, corruption, and limited coordination between federal and local authorities are hindering the rebuilding of Mosul, despite international pledges for aid. Many residents still remain without access to stable livelihoods.

Mosul is a critical test case for Iraq’s post-IS recovery. The city’s strategic location, diverse population and symbolic importance makes it a focal point for competing political, sectarian and regional interests. If inclusive governance, transparent reconstruction and community engagement fail to materialise, Mosul will become a flashpoint for future instability. On the other hand, successful recovery will serve as a blueprint for healing and reintegration in other post-conflict areas across Iraq.

The city also demonstrates how urban warfare and hybrid threats are reshaping the nature of modern conflict and how post-conflict cities should now navigate not only physical rebuilding but social, psychological and political reconstruction.

References

Al Jazeera. (2023). Iraq war, 20 years on: Visualising the impact of the invasion. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/4/5/iraq-war-20-years-on-visualising-the-impact-of-the-invasion

American Society of Overseas Research. (2019). CHI - UPDATE - Mosul Post-ISIL: Heritage destruction and the future of the city. https://www.asor.org/chi/updates/mosul-post-isil

George W. Bush Library. (n.d.). The Iraq War. https://www.georgewbushlibrary.gov

Human Rights Watch. (2023, March 20). World Report 2023: Iraq.

https://www.hrw.org

Human Rights Watch. (2023). Iraq: Mosul recovery remains uneven six years after ISIS defeat.

https://www.hrw.org

JohnSimpsonNews. (2019, September 11). [Posts about Mosul’s destruction and recovery]. X.

Lafta, R., Cetorelli, V., & Burnham, G. (2018). Living in Mosul during the time of ISIS and the military liberation: Results from a 40-cluster household survey. Conflict and Health, 12, 31. https://doi.org/10.1186/s13031-018-0167-2

Norwegian Refugee Council & Oxfam. (2021). Four years after Islamic State group: Families in Mosul still languish in poverty. https://reliefweb.int/report/iraq/four-years-after-islamic-state-group-families-mosul-still-languish-poverty

NWFreeZone. (2025, May 7). [Post about Mosul casualty figures]. X.

PBS News. (2023, March 30). The long-lasting impact of the U.S. invasion of Iraq. https://www.pbs.org

Pollack, K. M. (2017). Dispatch from Iraq: The anti-ISIS fight, economic troubles, and political maelstrom. https://www.brookings.edu/articles/dispatch-from-iraq-the-anti-isis-fight-economic-troubles-and-political-maelstrom/

SawabCenter. (2019, October 29). [Post about Mosul reconstruction costs]. X.

SIPRI. (2023, March 3). Iraq since the invasion: 20 years in SIPRI data. https://www.sipri.org

SpencerGuard. (2024, February 10). [Post about Battle of Mosul destruction]. X.

UN News. (2025). Iraq: How the world helped Mosul rise from the rubble of war. https://news.un.org/en/story/2025/02/1163601

United States Institute of Peace. (2023, February 14). Iraq Timeline: Since the 2003 War. https://www.usip.org

Verminus, M. (2023, November 26). [Post about Mosul displacement]. X.

Wikipedia. (2003). Mosul. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mosul

Footnotes

Eric’s Substack

Creating Communities

is a compelling platfrom exploring social value, human connection, and the stories that shape community development.

If you enjoyed this article, you may like our previous collaboration - part 1 of our mini series titled Battlefield and Beyond: Governance and economic recovery in post conflict states as a general overview